Part of the series: Debt, Dollars & Decisions: Why I’m Speaking Up Now

The Debt Snowball Is Real

The U.S. national debt has passed $37 trillion.

Check it out for yourself at the U.S. Debt Clock (warning… it is unsettling to see how fast the numbers are climbing…and pay attention to the interest on the debt).

That’s already about 120% of our GDP, which means we owe more than our entire economy produces in a year. And we’re still adding more than $1 trillion in new debt each year because of persistent annual deficits in the 6–8% of GDP range.

Unless something changes—soon—we are heading toward 200% debt-to-GDP within the next 16 to 18 years. That’s not an opinion. That’s arithmetic.

Here’s why:
– When you run deficits every year, the debt keeps growing.
– When interest rates are high, the debt grows even faster.
– When no one in Congress wants to cut spending or raise taxes, the problem compounds… fast… just like a snowball.
– And once the debt gets big enough, the interest alone becomes a second snowball… rolling even faster than the first because the government is now borrowing just to pay the interest on the existing debt… and that second snowball starts speeding up!

16 Years or So—If We’re Lucky

At the current pace, we’re on track to hit 200% debt-to-GDP by the early 2040s.

That might sound like a long way off—until you realize:
– That’s just four presidential elections away.
– That’s less than one generation.
– That’s a blink in economic history.

Many of us reading this article will still be alive when it happens. And if we’re not, our children and grandchildren definitely will be.

If something isn’t done to change course, the world our grandchildren are inheriting is going to look a lot more gloomy than the one our parents handed to us.

As Ray Dallio points out in “The Changing World Order” and his newest book, “How Countries Go Broke”, no advanced economy has ever crossed the 200% line without a serious reckoning. Most nations crossing that threshold face a reckoning in the form of:
– Skyrocketing borrowing costs,
– Currency devaluation,
– Political unrest,
– And erosion of public trust.

Another Ray Dallio quote… “history doesn’t repeat… it rhymes”. And we’ve seen this ‘rhyme’ in our own lifetimes, echoing the long arc of economic history. Think Argentina (a couple of times), think Japan in the 1990s, Greece, Italy also have been perilously close…

What It Would Mean for You and Me

Now, look… this isn’t an abstract economic concept developed by erudite economists and policy wonks…. It’s not theoretical… It hits home… hard!

At 200% debt-to-GDP, here’s what “everyday Americans” can expect:
– Taxes go up.
– Benefits shrink.
– Inflation sticks around and erodes savings faster.
– Government flexibility disappears.

The scariest part? It won’t feel sudden. It will creep in slowly—until it doesn’t. (Remember that guy from Hemingway’s novel who went bankrupt gradually then all at once?)

Why Entrepreneurs Should Be Paying Attention

If you’re a small or mid-sized business owner, you are the backbone of the American economy—and the most exposed when debt gets out of control.

Here’s what rising debt and deficits mean for business owners:
– Higher interest rates.
– Tighter capital.
– Regulatory pressure.
– Policy unpredictability.

Confidence begins to erode:
– Will your customers still have spending power?
– Will your vendors still be stable?
– Will you be able to hire and retain talent?

When the government loses fiscal flexibility, small business becomes the shock absorber—whether it’s fair or not.

This Is the Moment

We still have time to change course. But not much.

Economist Ray Dalio argues for what he calls “The 3% Solution”—a target that keeps deficits at or below 3% of GDP.

In the next article, I’ll walk through what the 3% Solution could look like—and why it’s not just smart economics, but common sense.

No one else is coming to fix this. In fact our cultural opponent… think China… is standing on the sidelines, watching, grinning and waiting to take center-stage on the world stage when our currency collapses. Think that couldn’t happen… you need to get into Dalio’s book, The New World Order.

It’s on us—to speak up, to ask hard questions, and to demand that our leaders stop kicking the can and start facing the facts.

We’ve got 16 years. Or less.

Let’s not waste them.

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Author: Ben Griffin

Facilitator - CEO Peer Advisory Group; Executive Coach; Photographer